As the use of eSIM technology increases in the mobile market, its extensive potential to fundamentally change the rules of the game becomes clear. The solution is currently redefining the way consumers and businesses communicate with cellular networks. Leading sources in the field claim that the number of mobile phones connected to eSIM should skyrocket in the coming years. By 2025, it is estimated (according to a high adoption rate) that devices supporting eSIM will account for up to 25% of all smartphone connections in the world, which is a significant leap forward compared to the current situation. Here, we will examine what is new in the field and what is the expected technology adoption rate.

 

 

eSIM smartphones connections in 2030
The number of mobile phones that will be connected by the year 2030 (according to an estimate of a high adoption rate). Source: Mobilise

What is eSIM actually?

eSIM, or Embedded SIM, is a digital SIM that is embedded directly in the device. The technology eliminates the need to insert a physical plastic card in order to enjoy all the advantages of a SIM. Thus, it is now possible to download new programs and packages by clicking on a link or scanning a QR code. This high flexibility ensures easier switching between providers, improved security and the ability to support multiple user profiles on one device. Naturally, these advantages make the technology attractive among manufacturers, distributors and consumers alike.

What are the current technology adoption rates?

As of 2023, there are approximately 850 million eSIM connections worldwide, with smartphones accounting for a significant portion of the usage volume. Alongside smartphones and tablets, this technology is also currently used in smart wearable equipment and IoT solutions. The flexibility offered by the eSIM makes this type of equipment more convenient to use and the saving in space for the electronic components thanks to the digital solution that replaces the card, makes it possible to design smaller devices. Although the current scale of adoption certainly sounds impressive, predictions indicate that this number is expected to grow exponentially in the coming years.

Distribution of eSIM Compatible Mobile Phones 2022, 2027 and 2028
Distribution of eSIM Compatible Mobile Phones 2022, 2027 and 2028ץ Source: Mobilise

What are the current market valuations?

There are several key trends that experts in the cellular world are currently predicting for eSIM technology. These trends are not only fueled by the ease of use for the consumer and the enthusiasm of the manufacturers who rushed to implement the technology in the new devices but also thanks to the new security options. When the device does not depend on physical media, it is possible to delete data and even lock the SIM completely remotely by electronic means in cases of loss or theft. This is an advantage that serves all parties involved in the market and contributes significantly to the growth trend.

These are some estimates that are important to know about the future of this market:

  • By 2025, the number of eSIM connections is expected to reach 3.4 billion across all territories currently adopting this technology.
  • Smartphones will continue to be the main driver of eSIM adoption. By 2030, moderate adoption estimates that 76% of all smartphone connections will be via eSIM, which translates to about 6.7 billion connections.
  • Although the USA and North America in general are currently the leading territory in technology adoption rates, it is estimated that the Asian market is expected to catch up and even stand at the forefront of the trend. The huge consumer volume of China and India, fed by the high population rates, will play a decisive role in this process.

What challenges are facing the adoption of this technology today?

There is no doubt that many leading manufacturers are adopting the eSIM quite enthusiastically. Apple has even increased its efforts and, starting with the iPhone 14, is releasing models that only support eSIM to the market. However, there are still some challenges that this market will need to overcome.

  • Consumer awareness – many consumers are still completely unaware of the eSIM technology and the benefits it offers. The transition to this technology may require efforts from the cell phone manufacturers to ensure rapid adaptation and adoption of the technology by the consumer as well.
  • Network Operator Adoption – While many major network operators support eSIM technology, widespread adoption requires industry-wide collaboration. Cellular providers are required to readjust the way they communicate with their audience, update the pricing model, and offer new solutions for purchasing packages based on the new technology in order to make the most of the opportunities it holds.
  • Appropriate regulation – the more international and local communications authorities build a regulatory framework adapted to the new technology quickly, the faster the rate of adoption of these solutions around the world will become.

All estimates indicate that the adoption of the eSIM technology will change the entire horizon of possibilities for the parties involved in the cellular market. Already today, the technology is embedded in countless devices and the hand is still tilted. As suppliers, manufacturers, and consumers alike adapt to the new solutions optimally, the technology adoption rate is expected to jump dramatically.